Recent data indicates a significant drop in the sales of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in the United States. Major vaccine manufacturers, including GlaxoSmithKline (GSK, Financial), Moderna, and Pfizer, face decreasing demand as independent pharmacists report a two-thirds decline in RSV vaccine uptake compared to the previous year.
RSV poses a severe health risk to infants, older adults, and individuals with compromised immune systems, leading to numerous hospitalizations and deaths annually. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends RSV vaccination for individuals aged 75 and older and high-risk groups aged 60 to 74, offering long-term protection from a single dose.
Pharmacists, including Erin Fox from the University of Utah, attribute the decline in RSV vaccine demand to a CDC decision in June. The CDC narrowed its recommendations for older adults, refraining from advising those under 60 to receive the vaccine. With reduced demand and stricter guidelines on vaccine eligibility, a decrease in vaccination numbers was anticipated.
Jefferies analyst Peter Welford reported that GSK's sales for Arexvy, the first RSV vaccine approved in May of last year, might fall short of Wall Street's expectations for Q3. Despite these challenges, a GSK spokesperson remains optimistic about the vaccine's growth potential in both domestic and global markets, citing that around 30% of adults aged 70 and above received the vaccine last year. They expect peak annual sales for Arexvy to reach $3.92 billion.
In 2023, GSK achieved $1.564 billion in RSV vaccine sales, while Pfizer recorded $890 million, half of GSK's figures. Market predictions suggest a slight decrease in GSK's sales to approximately $1.5 billion this year, whereas Pfizer's sales are expected to rise nearly 40% to $1.2 billion.
