July 1 - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM, Financial) shares edged up on Tuesday, underlining renewed investor interest in its AI growth trajectory.
Needham analyst Charles Shi outlined a path for TSMC to reach roughly $90 billion in AI-driven revenue by 2029, based on the company's own targets and projected AI accelerator shipments.
Shi's model suggests TSMC doesn't need dramatic increases in unit volume to hit its goal. Instead, he points to “significant silicon content growth” from adding more compute dies per package and shifting to custom high‑bandwidth memory base dies.
While Shi retains a Buy rating on TSMC and has lifted his price target to $270 from $225, he warns AI revenue may slow into 2026 due to a pause in AI accelerator volumes and limited silicon growth in NVIDIA (NVDA, Financial) Rubin products.
Looking ahead, Shi expects AI revenue to grow about 20% year‑on‑year in 2026, then accelerate to nearly 40% in 2027 and 45% in 2028 as new products like Rubin Ultra and Feynman drive higher silicon content.
The forecast underscores TSMC's pivotal role in powering the next wave of AI innovation.
What Does Wall Street Think About TSMC?
Based on the one year price targets offered by 17 analysts, the average target price for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is $223.45 with a high estimate of $265.34 and a low estimate of $119.37. The average target implies a downside of -1.73% from the current price of $227.38.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd in one year is $244.12, suggesting a upside of +7.36% from the current price of $227.38.
