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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -2.84 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The historical rank and industry rank for Vistra's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 10 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Vistra was 0.87. The lowest was -3.57. And the median was -2.75.
The historical data trend for Vistra's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Vistra Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec14 | Dec15 | Dec16 | Dec17 | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | |||||||||||
Beneish M-Score | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -2.60 | -2.98 | -0.91 | -2.83 | -3.57 |
Vistra Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | Jun24 | |
Beneish M-Score | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -2.89 | -3.07 | -3.57 | -2.93 | -2.84 |
For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers subindustry, Vistra's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry and Utilities sector, Vistra's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Vistra's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Vistra for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
= | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.4616 | + | 0.528 * 0.9302 | + | 0.404 * 0.9568 | + | 0.892 * 0.8457 | + | 0.115 * 1.159 | |
- | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI | |||||||
- | 0.172 * 1.3995 | + | 4.679 * -0.116754 | - | 0.327 * 0.9735 | |||||||
= | -2.84 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
This Year (Jun24) TTM: | Last Year (Jun23) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $2,110 Mil. Revenue was 3845 + 3054 + 3078 + 4086 = $14,063 Mil. Gross Profit was 1620 + 840 + 850 + 1566 = $4,876 Mil. Total Current Assets was $9,826 Mil. Total Assets was $39,125 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $18,279 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $2,814 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,438 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $10,057 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $14,238 Mil. Net Income was 365 + -35 + -184 + 502 = $648 Mil. Non Operating Income was 52 + 112 + -100 + 7 = $71 Mil. Cash Flow from Operations was 1196 + 1508 + 881 + 1560 = $5,145 Mil. |
Total Receivables was $1,707 Mil. Revenue was 3189 + 4425 + 3869 + 5146 = $16,629 Mil. Gross Profit was 1269 + 1834 + 653 + 1607 = $5,363 Mil. Total Current Assets was $8,911 Mil. Total Assets was $30,472 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $12,591 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $2,303 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,215 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $7,626 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $11,811 Mil. |
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
= | (2110 / 14063) | / | (1707 / 16629) | |
= | 0.150039 | / | 0.102652 | |
= | 1.4616 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
= | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) | |
= | (5363 / 16629) | / | (4876 / 14063) | |
= | 0.322509 | / | 0.346725 | |
= | 0.9302 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | (1 - (9826 + 18279) / 39125) | / | (1 - (8911 + 12591) / 30472) | |
= | 0.281661 | / | 0.294369 | |
= | 0.9568 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
= | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 | |
= | 14063 | / | 16629 | |
= | 0.8457 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
= | (2303 / (2303 + 12591)) | / | (2814 / (2814 + 18279)) | |
= | 0.154626 | / | 0.133409 | |
= | 1.159 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
= | (1438 / 14063) | / | (1215 / 16629) | |
= | 0.102254 | / | 0.073065 | |
= | 1.3995 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | ((14238 + 10057) / 39125) | / | ((11811 + 7626) / 30472) | |
= | 0.620958 | / | 0.637864 | |
= | 0.9735 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
= | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t | |
= | (648 - 71 | - | 5145) | / | 39125 | |
= | -0.116754 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Vistra has a M-score of -2.84 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Vistra's Beneish M-Score provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Stephanie Zapata Moore | officer: See Remarks | C/O VISTRA ENERGY CORP., 1601 BRYAN STREET, DALLAS TX 75201 |
Lisa Crutchfield | director | 6 LIBERTY LANE WEST, HAMPTON NH 03842 |
Carrie Lee Kirby | officer: See Remarks | C/O VISTRA ENERGY CORP., 1601 BRYAN STREET, DALLAS TX 75201 |
Scott A Hudson | officer: SVP and President Retail | C/O VISTRA ENERGY CORP., 6555 SIERRA DRIVE, IRVING TX 75039 |
Julie A. Lagacy | director | C/O RPM INTERNATIONAL INC., 2628 PEARL ROAD, P.O. BOX 777, MEDINA OH 44258 |
James A Burke | officer: See Remarks | 24 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 1946, HOUSTON TX 77046 |
Scott B Helm | director | C/O VISTRA ENERGY CORP., 1601 BRYAN STREET, DALLAS TX 75201 |
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. | 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization | BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY ST, STE 100, PO BOX 762, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3 |
Stacey H Dore | officer: EVP & Chief Strategy Officer | 1807 ROSS AVE, 4TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
Elizabeth Christine Dobry | officer: VP and Controller | C/O VISTRA ENERGY CORP., 6555 SIERRA DRIVE, IRVING TX 75039 |
Paul M Barbas | director | C/O DPL INC., 1065 WOODMAN DRIVE, DAYTON OH 45432 |
Kristopher E. Moldovan | officer: EVP and CFO | 6555 SIERRA DRIVE, IRVING TX 75039 |
Brian K Ferraioli | director | C/O FOSTER WHEELER LTD, PERRYVILLE CORPORATE PARK, CLINTON NJ 08809-4000 |
Curtis A Morgan | director, officer: See Remarks | 1155 PERIMETER CENTER WEST, ATLANTA GA 30338 |
Bam Partners Trust | other: See Remarks | 181 BAY STREET, SUITE 300, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3 |
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