What is Eagle Bancorp Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Eagle Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Eagle Bancorp Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
7830 Old Georgetown Road, Third Floor, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20814
Eagle Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company that operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, EagleBank, which offers a broad range of commercial banking services to business and professional clients and consumer banking services to individuals. These services include various deposit account schemes, online and mobile banking services, commercial loans for a variety of business purposes such as for working capital, equipment purchases, construction, and commercial real estate loans, etc., and term loans, consumer loans, personal credit cards, and residential mortgage loans, among others.
Executives
| Eric R Newell |
officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer |
7701 E. KELLOGG, SUITE 300, WICHITA KS 67207 |
| Paul Saltzman |
officer: EVP/Chief Legal Officer |
7830 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| A. Leslie Ludwig |
director |
1801 N. HERNDON ST., ARLINGTON VA 22201 |
| Janice L. Williams |
officer: EVP/CCO |
9712 BEMAN WOODS WAY, POTOMAC MD 20854 |
| Susan G Riel |
director, officer: President & CEO |
688 RIDGE ROAD, MT. AIRY MD 21771 |
| Lindsey S Rheaume |
officer: EVP/CLO-C&I |
4857 N. WILLIAMSBURG BLVD, ARLINGTON VA 22207 |
| Theresa G. Laplaca |
director |
2131 SHERWOOD AVE., CHARLOTTE NC 28207-2119 |
| Ryan Riel |
officer: Executive Vice President |
7830 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Antonio F Marquez |
officer: EVP/CLO-CRE |
6205 MAZWOOD ROAD, ROCKVILLE MD 20852 |
| Benjamin M. Soto |
director |
3240 FESSENDEN STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20008 |
| Kathy A Raffa |
director |
1899 L ST., NW, SUITE 850, WASHINGTON DC 20036 |
| Matthew D Brockwell |
director |
104 WESTMANOR COURT, VIENNA VA 22180 |
| James A Soltesz |
director |
8608 WHITE POST COURT, POTOMAC MD 20854 |
| Charles Levingston |
officer: EVP/CFO |
7830 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Steven Freidkin |
director |
7100 GLENBROOK ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
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