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Tencent Holdings (HKSE:00700) Predictability Rank


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What is Tencent Holdings Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tencent Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tencent Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Tencent Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Tencent Holdings Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Tencent Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00700) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01024 HKSE:00772 HKSE:09899 HKSE:01357 HKSE:01896 HKSE:03700 HKSE:02008 HKSE:01980 HKSE:00150 HKSE:00543 GOOGL META XAMS:PRX TSE:6098 SPOT DASH JSE:NPN BIDU PINS TME
Traded in Other Exchanges
TCTZF:USA TCEHY:USA TENCH:Mexico TCEHY:Mexico 0LEA:UK 0Z4S:UK NNN:Germany NNN:Germany NNN1:Germany NNN:Germany NNN1:Germany NNND:Bulgaria NNND:Austria NNN1:Austria
Address
No. 33 Haitian 2nd Road, Tencent Binhai Towers, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, CHN, 518054
Website
http://www.tencent.com
Tencent holds a prominent position in China's internet sector, with a diverse portfolio of products and services used daily by a significant portion of the population. The company is the world's largest video game publisher and owns Honor of Kings, a top-grossing mobile game globally. Tencent also operates WeChat, China's largest social media super app, which has become deeply integrated into the daily lives of Chinese people for communication, entertainment, shopping, and more. Beyond its offerings, Tencent is a significant player in global venture capital and investment. The company holds substantial stakes in leading tech companies, including PDD, Kuaishou, and Epic Games.
Executives
Prosus N.v. (formerly Known As "myriad International Holdings N.v.") 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Naspers Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Advance Data Services Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Ma Huateng 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Mih Tc Holdings Limited

Tencent Holdings Headlines

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