OPCH (Option Care Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Option Care Health Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Option Care Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Option Care Health Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Option Care Health Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Option Care Health Inc (NAS:OPCH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MM6A:Germany

Address

3000 Lakeside Drive, Suite 300N, Bannockburn, IL, USA, 60015

Website

https://www.optioncarehealth.com

Option Care Health Inc is the provider of home and alternate-site infusion services. It provides treatment for bleeding disorders, neurological disorders, heart failure, anti-infectives, and chronic inflammatory disorders among others.

Executives

Michael Bavaro	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	3000 LAKESIDE DRIVE, SUITE 300N, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Kraemer Harry M Jansen Jr	director	DENTSPLY SIRONA INC., 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
R Carter Pate	director	5739 WORTHAM LANE, DALLAS TX 75252
Timothy P Sullivan	director, 10 percent owner	THREE FIRST NATIONAL PLZ, SUITE 3800, CHICAGO IL 60602
Michael H. Shapiro	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O CATAMARAN, 1600 MCCONNOR PARKWAY, SCHAUMBURG IL 60173
Elizabeth Quadros Betten	director, 10 percent owner	C/O OPTION CARE, 3000 LAKESIDE DRIVE, SUITE 300N, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Elizabeth D Bierbower	director	HUMANA INC., 500 W. MAIN ST., LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Smyser Collin	officer: Gen. Counsel & Corp. Secy.	C/O OPTION CARE HEALTH, 3000 LAKESIDE DR. SUITE 300N, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Luke Whitworth	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3000 LAKESIDE DRIVE, SUITE 300N, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc.	10 percent owner	108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Hc Group Holdings I, Llc	10 percent owner	THREE FIRST NATIONAL PLAZA, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60602
Wba Investments, Inc.	10 percent owner	108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Och Us Holding Llc	10 percent owner	200 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Wba Us 1 Co.	10 percent owner	180 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Harriet Booker	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	C/O BIOSCRIP, INC., 1600 BROADWAY, SUITE 700, DENVER CO 80202