PTGX (Protagonist Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Protagonist Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Protagonist Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Protagonist Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (NAS:PTGX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7707 Gateway Boulevard, Suite 140, Newark, CA, USA, 94560

Website

https://www.protagonist-inc.com

Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company having a proprietary technology platform that enables the discovery and development of novel constrained peptide-based drug candidates to address medical needs. Its pipeline products include Rusfertide (PTG-300) and JNJ-2113.

Executives

Asif Ali	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7707 GATEWAY BLVD., SUITE 140, NEWARK CA 94560
William D. Waddill	director	C/O CALITHERA BIOSCIENCES, 343 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 200, SO. SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Arturo Md Molina	officer: Chief Medical Officer	10990 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Patel Dinesh V Ph D	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC., 521 COTTONWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 100, MILPITAS CA 95035
Suneel Gupta	officer: Chief Development Officer	7707 GATEWAY BLVD., SUITE 140, NEWARK CA 94560
Swisher Daniel N Jr	director	C/O SUNESIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 395 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Lewis T Williams	director	C/O FIVE PRIME THERAPEUTICS, INC., TWO CORPORATE DRIVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Sarah B. Noonberg	director	331 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Sarah A O'dowd	director	3185 LAURELVIEW COURT, FREMONT CA 94538
Harold E Selick	director
Bryan Giraudo	director	7707 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 140, NEWARK CA 94560
Donald A. Kalkofen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7707 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 140, NEWARK CA 94560
David Y Liu	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC., 521 COTTONWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 100, MILPITAS CA 95035
Chaitan Phd Khosla	director	3832 BAY CENTER PLACE, HAYWARD CA 94545
Richard S Shame	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC., 521 COTTONWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 100, MILPITAS CA 95035