SAM (Boston Beer Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Boston Beer Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Boston Beer Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Boston Beer Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Boston Beer Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Boston Beer Co Inc (NYSE:SAM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Design Center Place, Suite 850, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

https://www.bostonbeer.com

Boston Beer is a top player in high-end malt beverages and adjacent categories in the us, with strong positions in craft beer, flavored malt beverages, hard cider, and hard seltzer. The bulk of volume and revenue is concentrated in four brands: Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, Twisted Tea, and Truly. Beverages are produced using a hybrid model leveraging both in-house capacities and third-party breweries through contract arrangements. While the firm is required to use distributors to reach end markets, including retailers and on-premises operators, it also employs 500 internal sales representatives to educate the market about its products. The firm generates over 95% of sales in the us.

Executives

Carolyn L. O'boyle	officer: Chief People Officer	THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC., ONE DESIGN CENTER PL., STE. 850, BOSTON MA 02210
Diego Reynoso	officer: CFO and Treasurer	7078 SHADY OAK ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Calagione Samuel A. Iii	officer: Founder & Brewer, Dogfish Head	THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC., ONE DESIGN CENTER PL., STE. 850, BOSTON MA 02210
John C Geist	officer: VP of Sales	ONE DESIGN CENTER PLACE, SUITE 850, BOSTON MA 02210
Cynthia Swanson	director	1529 OAK STREET, SARASOTA FL 34236
David A Burwick	director	32 AUTUMN LANE, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Philip A. Hodges	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC., ONE DESIGN CENTER PL., STE. 850, BOSTON MA 02210
Matthew Donal Murphy	officer: CAO & Interim CFO	THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, ONE DESIGN CENTER PLACE, SUITE 850, BOSTON MA 02210
Annette N Fritsch	officer: VP of Product Design and R&D	THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC., ONE DESIGN CENTER PLACE, SUITE 850, BOSTON 2J 02210
David L. Grinnell	officer: Vice President of Brewing	THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC., ONE DESIGN CENTER PLACE, STE. 850, BOSTON MA 02170
Quincy B Troupe	officer: Senior VP, Supply Chain	C/O THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, 1 DESIGN CENTER PLACE, SUITE 850, BOSTON MA 02210
C James Koch	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	C/O THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, ONE DESIGN CENTER PLACE, SUITE 850, BOSTON MA 02210
Jean Michel Valette	director	28 MAPLE AVE, KENTFIELD CT 06897
Cynthia A Fisher	director	186 PARK STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
Tara L. Heath	officer: Vice President, Legal	THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC., 1 DESIGN CENTER PL., STE. 850, BOSTON MA 02210