SMRT (SmartRent) Predictability Rank

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What is SmartRent Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SmartRent Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SmartRent Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » SmartRent Inc (NYSE:SMRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8665 E. Hartford Drive, Suite 200, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, 85255

Website

https://www.smartrent.com

SmartRent Inc is an enterprise smart home and smart building technology platform for property owners, managers and residents. The SmartRent solution is designed to provide property managers with seamless visibility and control over all their assets while delivering cost savings and additional revenue opportunities through all-in-one home control offerings for residents. Geographical, it operates in the United States and International; majority revenue being generated from the United States.

Executives

Robyn Young	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	8665 E HARTFORD DRIVE, SUITE 200, SCOTTSDALE AZ 855255
Alana Beard	director	6060 CENTER DRIVE 10TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90045
Bruce C Strohm	director	C/O EQUITY RESIDENTIAL, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Isaiah Derose-wilson	officer: Chief Technology Officer	18835 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Kristen Morse Lee	officer: General Counsel	8665 E HARTFORD DRIVE SUITE 200, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Robert T. Best	director	18835 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Bain Capital Venture Fund 2019, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Christopher Jon Edmonds	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	18835 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Demetrios Barnes	officer: Chief Operating Officer	18835 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Mitch Karren	officer: Chief Product Officer	18835 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Hiroshi Okamoto	officer: CFO	8665 E HARTFORD DRIVE, SUITE 200, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
John Hanson Helm	10 percent owner	C/O REAL ESTATE TECHNOLOGY VENTURES, 136 HEBER AVE, SUITE 304, PARK CITY UT 84060
Brian M Roberts	officer: Chief Legal Officer	18835 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE 300 & 380, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Jonathan Wolter	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1235 RADIO ROAD, SUITE 110, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Lucas Merwan Haldeman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	18835 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255