STZ (Constellation Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Constellation Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Constellation Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Constellation Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Constellation Brands Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE:STZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

STZ:Mexico 1STZ:Italy CB1:Germany CB1A:Germany CB1A:Germany STZ:Canada STZB34:Brazil STZ:Austria

Address

50 East Broad Street, Rochester, NY, USA, 14614

Website

https://www.cbrands.com

Constellation Brands is the largest provider of alcoholic beverages across the beer, wine, and spirits categories in the us, generating 82% of revenue from Mexican beer imports under top-selling brands such as Modelo and Corona. The rest of the business includes some remaining wine and spirits brands, categories where the company continue to prune assets in recent years. With its exclusive rights tied to the Mexican beer brands effective only in the us, the firm has little revenue exposure to international markets. Constellation owns a 26% stake in no-moat Canopy Growth, a medicinal and recreational cannabis producer in Canada, and has a 50/50 joint venture with glass manufacturer Owens-Illinois in Mexico.

Executives

William T Giles	director	123 S. FRONT STREET, DEPT. 8074, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Wildstar Partners Llc	10 percent owner	110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Ser Business Holdings Lp	other: Member of 10% owner group	C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, 110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Robert Sands	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & COO	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Richard Sands	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of Board & CEO	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Sabia James A. Jr.	officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BLDG. 100, VICTOR NY 14564
William A Newlands	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DR., BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Zachary M Stern	10 percent owner	C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, 110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Kaneenat Kristann Carey	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Zmss Business Holdings Lp	other: Member of 10% owner group	C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, 110 E ATLANTIC AVENUE, SUITE 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Robert Sands Master Trust	10 percent owner	207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Garth Hankinson	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BLDG. 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Daniel J Mccarthy	director	FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS, 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Michael Mcgrew	officer: EVP, Chief Comm & CSR Officer	207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Family Foundation Sands	other: Member of 10% owner group	C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, 110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444