What is Unity Biotechnology Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Unity Biotechnology Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Unity Biotechnology Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
285 East Grand Avenue, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080
Unity Biotechnology Inc designs therapeutics that prevent, halt, and reverse various diseases of aging. The company focuses on clearing senescent cells, and creating senolytic medicines. Its medicines target vulnerabilities to senescent cells to clear those cells from the human body while leaving normal cells unaffected. The firm focuses on age-associated diseases such as osteoarthritis, eye diseases, and pulmonary diseases. Its drug candidates include, UBX1325 is being developed for age-related diseases of the eye, including diabetic macular edema, or DME, UBX2089, which is a circulating hormone which is produced in the kidneys and choroid plexus of the brain, which is being researched for multiple neurology indications, and UBX2050.
Executives
| Alexander Hieu Nguyen |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O UNITY BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 285 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Anirvan Ghosh |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O UNITY BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 285 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Lynne Marie Sullivan |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O SOLID BIOSCIENCES, LLC, 141 PORTLAND STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Jamie Dananberg |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
3280 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Michael P. Samar |
director |
C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 11711 N. MERIDIAN ST. SUITE 310, CARMEL IN 46032 |
| Nathaniel E David |
director, officer: President |
C/O KYTHERA BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 27200 WEST AGOURA ROAD, SUITE 200, CALABASAS CA 91301 |
| Gilmore Neil O'neill |
director |
215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Alexander Azoy |
officer: See Remarks |
30699 RUSSELL RANCH ROAD, SUITE 140, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362 |
| Graham K Cooper |
director |
C/O RECEPTOS, INC., 10835 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 205, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Robert Nelsen |
director |
8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
| David L. Lacey |
director |
3280 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Kristina Burow |
director |
8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
| Camille D Samuels |
director |
2463 JACKSON ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94115 |
| Paul L Berns |
director |
11080 CIRCLEPOINT RD., STE, 200, WESTMINSTER CO 80020 |
| Dan Marquess |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
3280 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
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