WATT (Energous) Predictability Rank

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What is Energous Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Energous Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Energous Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Energous Corp (NAS:WATT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0IH3:UK

Address

3590 North First Street, Suite 210, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134

Website

https://www.energous.com

Energous Corp has developed wireless power networks technology (WPNT), consisting of semiconductor chipsets, software controls, hardware designs and antennas, that enable radio frequency (RF) based charging for Internet of Things (IoT) devices. Its products include Transmitter IC & Module, Receivers IC, Transmitter System and other tools.

Executives

Cesar Johnston	officer: Senior VP, Engineering	303 RAY STREET, PLEASANTON CA 94566
William T Mannina	officer: Acting CFO (Interim)	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, C/O SYMMETRICOM, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Sheryl Wilkerson	director	C/O ENERGOUS CORPORATION, 3590 NORTH FIRST STREET, SUITE 210, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Rahul G. Patel	director	C/O ENERGOUS CORPORATION, 3590 NORTH FIRST STREET STE 210, SAN JOSE CA 95134
J Michael Dodson	director	1220 N. SIMON CIRCLE, ANAHEIM CA 92806
David Earle Roberson	director
Neeraj Sahejpal	officer: Senior VP, Product Marketing	C/O ENERGOUS CORPORATION, 3590 NORTH FIRST STREET, SUITE 210, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Brian J Sereda	officer: Vice President & CFO	3590 NORTH FIRST STREET, SUITE 210, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Kathleen A Bayless	director	1251 MCKAY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Daniel W Fairfax	director	1421 MCCARTHY BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Reynette K. Au	director	C/O ENERGOUS CORPORATION, 3590 NORTH FIRST STREET STE 210, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Michael Noonen	director	C/O 8X8 INC, 2445 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Nicolaos G. Alexopoulos	director	3590 NORTH FIRST STREET, SUITE 210, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Stephen R Rizzone	director, officer: CEO and President	METVANTAGE INC, 201 CONTINENETAL BLVD SUITE 201, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
John Gaulding	director	C/O MONSTER WORLDWIDE INC, 622 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017